The Conviction Test

𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞

Lately, I've been listening to David Senra's Founders podcast. If you're not familiar, he profiles history's greatest entrepreneurs - and one thing consistently stands out : the best builders are obsessed. The business is an extension of who they are.

These are missionaries, not mercenaries. That distinction matters—especially in the earliest, most fragile stages of building something new. When things inevitably go sideways (and they will), it's only that deep connection to the problem or mission that carries you through.

I recently evaluated two founders building in hot markets. Both had solid ideas and early traction. One lived the problem firsthand and built through trial and error until something clicked. The other saw an opportunity, borrowed the language, and rushed to market.

The difference came down to mission. One was running toward something. The other was chasing a trend.

𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝

𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐀: 𝐘𝐞𝐬 ✅

This founder is building an investing platform for gig-economy workers and creators that need help managing volatile income and need tools to save, invest, and smooth cash flow.

What made this compelling was the alignment. This founder lived the gig life firsthand: delivering, freelancing, budgeting on variable income. The problem wasn't theoretical, it was personal.

The path here wasn't linear. This founder had tested and closed multiple projects before this one stuck. That trial and error built pattern recognition and resilience. Each attempt refined the thinking and validated the conviction.

The execution sealed it. Built the v1 product themselves, secured 2,000+ beta users, and opened conversations with a major gig-platform partner. When things broke, they kept going, because the mission wasn't optional.

The combination of personal conviction, technical ability, and distribution path made this an easy yes.

𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐁: 𝐍𝐨 ❌  

This founder launched a SaaS platform offering "influencer coaching" via chat-based AI and templated courses. They'd raised from friends and family, built an MVP themselves, and gathered a small community.

From the outside, it looked solid. The creator economy was hot, and the founder had marketing experience via his agency. Over time it became clear this was opportunistic.

The founder saw a hot market and borrowed the language. No obsession, no unique insight from lived experience, no deep connection to the creator problems they claimed to solve.

The product existed, but the attachment was shallow. Marketing expertise doesn't translate to creator empathy. When this inevitably hit obstacles, there was no staying power. If this failed, they'd move on to the next trend.

Opportunity without obsession doesn't last, and this is why I said no.

𝐌𝐲 𝐑𝐮𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐤

𝐀 𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧

𝐄𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐫

𝐐: 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦?

Listen to how they talk about the problem. Those with real connection speak with specificity. They describe user pain points with detail that only comes from lived experience. Those without speak in market-sizing generalities and borrowed frameworks.

Additionally, watch what they've built before this. Founders running toward missions often have a trail of attempts and refinements. They're solving the problem that won't leave them alone. Opportunists chase what's trending and pivot when the next thing appears.

The clearest test: ask what happens if this specific idea fails. Those with conviction will keep working on the same problem through different approaches. Those without will move on to whatever seems promising next.

𝐅𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤

𝐂𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬

Founding something is an endurance test. Your connection to the mission determines how long you last. Markets change, teams leave, products break. But if the founder cares, they rebuild. If they don't, they quit.

Betting on conviction isn't about backing perfect ideas. It's about backing people who won't stop when the easy path disappears.

The ledger entry is clear: bet on founders running toward missions, not away from their current situation or chasing whatever's hot.

Auditing more talent next week,
Will Stringer

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